1. What is a hypothesis?
In scientific or social scientific inquiry, a hypothesis is an educated guess about the relationship between two or more variables. Articulating the relationship between these variables forces us to explain the connection between them and to uncover our assumptions about this relationship or the variables themselves. Making these connections is a core element of public diplomacy (PD) planning. A hypothesis makes explicit the connection between a PD initiative or activity and the advancement of policy goals.
2. Initiative hypothesis templates
We recommend using a template to write an initiative hypothesis to help guide your thinking. One template is not required or preferable to the other, but you may find some initiatives better suited to one format than the other. Whatever template you choose, it is important to use it to articulate the reason you think your initiative will work.
Before we start, it is worth noting that a template is a reusable pattern that not only helps you generate a complex idea but also helps you more effectively present it to your own audiences.
The parts in brackets are content categories that you will replace with details specific to your initiative. After using the template to flesh out your initiative hypothesis, feel free to rewrite it to better fit your situation.
As forms, templates may seem limiting, but they can actually help you invent new and helpful ways to view problems.
Template If [narrowed audience] + [takes specific action], [then desired behavior will change]. This outcome supports [specified US policy goal] because [reason]. |
In-progress If [narrowed audience: young Lakopian university graduates and hold entry-level positions in the workforce] + [specific action: increase their participation in mentoring programs], [then desired behavior]: then they will increase their social capital and potentially make them more competitive for merit-based promotions. This outcome supports [specified US policy goal: the goals of strengthening the Lakopian economy and economic empowerment for all Lakopians] because [reason: it boosts workforce efficiency.]. |
Final initiative hypothesis The initiative “Networking 101” encourages entry-level working Lakopian university graduates to participate in mentoring programs by demonstrating the value of mentors and connecting them with established leaders in the public and private sectors, which will increase their social capital and potentially make them more competitive for merit-based promotions. This outcome supports the goals of strengthening the Lakopian economy and economic empowerment for all Lakopians by boosting workforce efficiency. |
Templates are useful because they allow us to think about each part of a complex problem in isolation, and they also provide a framework for communicating that complexity with clarity.»
Template 1: Audience - Effects - Outcome
The Initiative ________________________________________________________(title)
prioritizes _________________________________________________________(audience)
in order to _________________________________(increase/decrease/reinforce)
their ____________________________________________(attitude/belief/behavior)
about _____________________________________________________(issue/problem)
by ______________________________________________________(PD activity/action)
in order to _____________________________________________(desired outcome)
This outcome supports __________________________(U.S. foreign policy goal)
by ________________________________________________________________(reason)
Written as a sentence:
The initiative (title) prioritizes (audience) in order to (increase/decrease/reinforce) their (attitude/belief/behavior) about (issue/problem) by (PD activity/action) in order to (desired outcome). This outcome supports (U.S. foreign policy goal) by (reason).
We Example:
The initiative “Networking 101” targets young Lakopian university graduates who are university graduates and hold entry-level positions in the workforce to increase their participation in mentoring programs by demonstrating the value of mentors and connecting them with established leaders in the public and private sectors in order to increase their social capital and potentially make them more competitive for promotions. This outcome supports the goals of strengthening the Lakopian economy and economic empowerment for all Lakopians by boosting workforce efficiency.
Template 2: If–Then
If _____________________________________________________________________(audience)
[does/takes] __________________________________________________________(action),
then the _____________________________________________(attitude/belief/behavior)
will ____________________________________________________________________(change).
This outcome supports _______________________________(U.S. foreign policy goal)
by _____________________________________________________________________(reason).
Written as a sentence:
If (audience) does/takes (action) then their (attitude/belief/behavior) will (change). This outcome supports (U.S. foreign policy goal) by (reason).
Example:
If young Lakopian university graduates who hold entry level positions in the workforce participate in more mentoring programs and networking opportunities, then they will gain access to social capital, which may make them more competitive for merit-based promotions. Increasing the value of mentoring and networking supports the goals of strengthening the Lakopian economy and economic empowerment for all Lakopians by boosting workforce efficiency.
3. Writing stronger hypothesis statements
Strong hypotheses point toward the specific changes desired. They also create a causal link between desired changes in audiences and the linked goal. The table below provides several examples of how specificity can strengthen hypothesis statements.
Weaker | Stronger |
Issue: Countering Violent Extremism |
Youth are vulnerable to extremism; therefore, we must engage with them, especially on social media. | If vulnerable communities become more aware of the risks of radicalization, then those communities will be less susceptible to violent extremist messaging and recruiting, resulting in fewer young people leaving to fight in foreign conflicts.
If vulnerable individuals embrace positive, alternative narratives, then those individuals will be less susceptible to violent extremist messaging and recruiting, resulting in stronger communities that are able to resist radicalization. |
Issue: Market access for U.S. goods and services |
The African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) will benefit African entrepreneurs, enabling them to be leveraged as stakeholders to advocate for the organization’s legislation and partner with the U.S. embassy in their region. | If African publics and policymakers understand U.S. agricultural safety controls, then they will perceive U.S. agricultural products as high quality, and as a result, African policymakers will be more willing to consider legislation that supports U.S. imports. |
Issue: Countering disinformation |
There are low rates of media literacy in Archenland, so embassy initiatives need to focus on promoting the value of a free press. | If Archenland media consumers can better distinguish between legitimate news and disinformation, then they will support a free and independent press, which will help them reject manipulation by malign actors. |
Figure 23. Improving hypothesis statements
4. Tips for overcoming common challenges
Several common challenges arise when writing hypothesis statements for initiatives. The table below provides examples of how to overcome these challenges by using stronger logic and analysis.
Challenge | Solution |
Ignoring the audience The PD intervention is the basis for the “if” statement, rather than the desired change in audience attitudes/beliefs/behavior. Weak hypothesis If more training were given to university departments and businesses in the tourism and hospitality industry, then this sector of the economy would offer more jobs and provide more economic success to Atlantis. The logic that links the PD initiative (training) and the desired outcome (more jobs) is missing: What is the attitude/belief/behavior that will prompt this outcome? In this example, the lack of training is the superficial manifestation of a dearth of skills and/or other impediments to the development of a tourism industry. What is the deeper problem, beyond lack of training, that the initiative is trying to solve?
| Focus on the audience Apply evidence-based logic to your program decisions. Focus on the attitude, belief, or behavior change the PD program addresses and articulate how it will result in achieving the initiative objective. Look for the problem you are trying to solve and how a PD program can substantially help.
Stronger hypothesis If academic leaders at universities understood how a better trained and educated workforce could contribute to growing the tourism and hospitality industry in Atlantis, then they would be more likely to support local students in their efforts to join this sector of the economy, rather than encouraging them to explore other career paths. |
Overly ambitious claims The desired outcome (“then”) cannot be produced by the intervention (“if”). Weak hypothesis If Minarian entrepreneurs and youth develop technological skills, they will become competitive in international markets and foster regional connectivity between Minaria and other European nations in business, technology, and cultural fields. | Make more moderate claims Avoid taking one small PD program and attributing major accomplishment to it. Consult country-specific data and regional context to further understand the major barriers to achieving the desired end state. Beware of sweeping logic that suggests grand effects will result from small interventions. Instead, explain how those critical steps get us closer to the desired end-state.
Stronger hypothesis If Minarian entrepreneurs in the agricultural sector develop technological skills, they will be better positioned to sell products regionally, thereby increasing their economic prosperity and supporting the goal of reducing inequality between Minaria and its neighbors. |
Confirming an assumption/condition A process through which relying on a precondition or assumption leads to its own confirmation. Weak hypothesis If young women attend the Race to Space program, they will be inspired to pursue a career in science, technology, engineering or math (STEM).
If we provide training, then more people will be trained. | Lay out the logic Avoid logic that relies on past performance, e.g., “This program worked last year, so it will work again,” without providing sound logic and contextual analysis to back up your statement. One good review of a program does not cancel out the bad reviews. (Nor does one bad review cancel out many positive ones!) Do not generalize to an entire population on the basis of a narrow instance.
Stronger hypothesis If young women who are interested in STEM attend the Race to Space program, they will gain information about the technical and educational requirements for pursuing careers in the space industry, which will enable them to make their university applications more competitive. If we provide training on political engagement, then young voters will increase their interactions with local political representatives via social media and written correspondence. |
Mirror imaging The hypothesis statement makes an assumption about the motivations of a foreign public that mirrors your own perspective on the issue.
Weak hypothesis If we could offer the public in Europia a better understanding of the value of multilateralism, then the public would support using a higher percentage of funding for national security infrastructure. This example assumes that the relevant foreign public does not value “multilateralism,” but in fact, their priorities about defense spending could reflect their prioritizing support for a social safety net.
If women in Ruritania better understood the value of freedom of expression, they would be more likely to advocate for their right to not wear religious covering. | Focus on local context, values, and ideas Avoid applying U.S. values in a context that is rich with diverse and different values. Beware of excluding other important factors that might contribute to a certain opinion on an issue. Avoid considering only U.S. values in the context of a foreign policy challenge. Beware of letting how you look and/or how others see you assume greater importance in your work.
Stronger hypothesis If younger voters understood the relationship between defense spending and Europia’s ability to provide a social safety net, then they would be supportive of a higher percentage of funding for national security infrastructure, especially as it relates to domestic economic growth.
If women in Ruritania felt empowered to make decisions related to both freedom of expression and freedom of religion, they would be more likely to advocate for the ability of women to choose whether to wear religious covering.
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Circular reasoning The reasoner begins with what they are trying to end with. This can be easy to spot because both sides of the argument are making essentially the same point. (Ex: If A, then B. If B, then A.)
Weak hypothesis Radical narratives cause people to commit electoral violence, because those who commit electoral violence hear radical narratives. | Articulate clear causal logic
Stronger hypothesis If people who hear radical political narratives have access to alternative points of view that humanize their political opponents, they will be less likely to commit electoral violence.
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